Report each account's future payout chain with closed-form reach probabilities
projectPerfectPath prices every projected withdrawal as min(withdrawalPct × equity profit, cap) × profit split, and tracks the cumulative probability of reaching it under the fair-walk ruin model — room/(room + dayTarget) per day (the per-leg product telescopes), trailing threshold locked at breakeven after the first withdrawal, no obfuscation branches. The reporter attaches the first 6 payouts per account so the master's payout calendar renders real amounts and probabilities instead of one static expectedPayout. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Claude Fable 5
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@@ -16,7 +16,15 @@ export interface AccountConfig {
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firstDayStop: boolean; // first cycle day carries a $1,000 account stop - books red and ends
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minDayStop: boolean; // min-day trades carry a 2x-target stop; next day after a loss rides stopless
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combineCmeHolidays: boolean; // true = CME holiday sessions count with the next full trading day (Apex-style)
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withdrawalStages: { profit: number; consistency: number; minTradingDays: number; drain?: boolean; minDayPnL?: number }[]; // per-stage fresh profit + consistency (empty = use base values); drain = spam-withdraw stage
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withdrawalStages: { profit: number; consistency: number; minTradingDays: number; drain?: boolean; minDayPnL?: number; withdrawalPct?: number; payoutCap?: number }[]; // per-stage fresh profit + consistency (empty = use base values); drain = spam-withdraw stage
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/** Payout model, from the master's payout settings (absent on old masters):
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* withdraw withdrawalPct of balance (capped at payoutCap) per cycle,
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* receive profitSplit of the gross; trailingDrawdown feeds the ruin
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* probabilities. */
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withdrawalPct?: number;
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payoutCap?: number;
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profitSplit?: number;
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trailingDrawdown?: number;
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}
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export interface FirmConfig {
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