DXtrade: volatility measured once a day, next-leg hold on the dashboard, closed accounts dead

Each instrument's volatility is measured at the first good sync (or pick) of
a trade date and held for the day, so a day's sizing and hold estimate stay
put. The dashboard shows each DXtrade account's next-leg hold ("hold ~Nh")
with its symbol, notional, volatility and win odds. Accounts the firm has
closed (TERMINATED, EXPIRED, NO_TRADING) read as dead instead of inactive,
and skip the books check.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/api/state/route.ts

@@ -3,10 +3,12 @@ import { loadDailyPnL } from '@/lib/db';
 import { getClients } from '@/lib/clients';
 import { getCachedCatalog } from '@/lib/firm-catalog';
 import { getAccountConfig, getInferredSize, matchAccountType } from '@/lib/account-type-resolver';
-import { historyFresh } from '@/lib/platform-client';
+import { historyFresh, type PlatformContract } from '@/lib/platform-client';
+import type { AccountState } from '@/types';
 import {
     combineCmeSessions, computeDayPlan, cycleCompletion, resolveEffectiveConfig, currentTradeDateCT,
-    obfuscationStopDollars, dllRoom as computeDllRoom, dllStopDollars, botStopsActive,
+    obfuscationStopDollars, dllRoom as computeDllRoom, dllStopDollars, botStopsActive, sizeNotional,
+    DEFAULT_TARGET_HOLD_HOURS,
     LEG_COMPLETION_EPSILON,
 } from '@/lib/trading-logic';
 
@@ -86,6 +88,7 @@ export async function GET() {
                 let effectiveProfitTarget: number | null = null;
                 let nextStop: number | null = null;
                 let dllRoom: number | null = null;
+                let holdEstimate: AccountState['holdEstimate'] = null;
                 if (cfg && effective && !isDead) {
                     const equityProfit = cash.amount - cfg.accountSize;
                     const plan = computeDayPlan(
@@ -121,6 +124,40 @@ export async function GET() {
                         if (Number.isFinite(stop) && stop > 0) nextStop = Math.round(stop * 100) / 100;
                     }
 
+                    // DXtrade: size the next leg the way fireLeg would, on the
+                    // instrument the selector last picked and today's measured
+                    // volatility, to show how long it is expected to hold.
+                    const pick = (client as { lastPickedContract?: PlatformContract | null }).lastPickedContract;
+                    if (plan && plan.remainingToday > 0 && pick?.stepNotional && pick.volatilityPerHour) {
+                        const pct = pick.commissionPct ?? f.commissionPct ?? 0;
+                        const obf = obfuscationStopDollars(cfg, dailyPnL, plan, combined.tradeDate, plan.remainingToday);
+                        const room = dllRoom;
+                        const sizing = sizeNotional({
+                            leg: plan.remainingToday,
+                            stopDollarsAt: (n) => Math.min(
+                                Number.isFinite(obf) && obf > 0 ? obf : Infinity,
+                                room !== null && dll > 0
+                                    ? dllStopDollars({ room, dailyLossLimit: dll, entryFee: (pct / 100) * n, commissionPct: pct })
+                                    : Infinity,
+                            ),
+                            volatilityPerHour: pick.volatilityPerHour,
+                            targetHoldHours: f.targetHoldHours || DEFAULT_TARGET_HOLD_HOURS,
+                            commissionPct: pct,
+                            spreadFraction: pick.spreadFraction,
+                            financingPctPerDay: f.financingPctPerDay ?? 0,
+                            maxNotional: cfg.maxNotional ?? 0,
+                        });
+                        if (sizing) {
+                            holdEstimate = {
+                                hours: Math.round(sizing.predictedHoldHours * 10) / 10,
+                                symbol: String(pick.id),
+                                notional: Math.round(sizing.notional),
+                                volatilityPerDay: pick.volatilityPerHour * Math.sqrt(24),
+                                winProbability: sizing.winProbability,
+                            };
+                        }
+                    }
+
                     // Effective profit target = max(stage target, consistency realTarget).
                     // If a big day forces the consistency rule, the account must reach maxDay/consistency
                     // in total trading profit for the stage, not just profitTarget.
@@ -228,6 +265,7 @@ export async function GET() {
                     dailyTarget,
                     nextStop,
                     dllRoom,
+                    holdEstimate,
                     remainingToday,
                     effectiveProfitTarget,
                     dailyPnL,

app/page.tsx

@@ -390,6 +390,15 @@ function AccountRow({ account, firm, hideDead, privacy, onAssigned }: {
                             {typeof account.dllRoom === 'number' && (
                                 <span className="text-slate-500" title="Hard daily loss limit: what the firm's day may still lose before a breach. 10% of the limit is never spent."> · DLL room ${fmt(account.dllRoom)}</span>
                             )}
+                            {account.holdEstimate && (
+                                <span
+                                    className="text-slate-500"
+                                    title={`Next leg on ${account.holdEstimate.symbol}: $${Math.round(account.holdEstimate.notional).toLocaleString()} notional at today's measured volatility of ${(account.holdEstimate.volatilityPerDay * 100).toFixed(2)}%/day`
+                                        + (account.holdEstimate.winProbability !== null ? `, wins ~${Math.round(account.holdEstimate.winProbability * 100)}% of the time` : '')}
+                                >
+                                    {' · hold ~'}{account.holdEstimate.hours < 48 ? `${Math.round(account.holdEstimate.hours)}h` : `${(account.holdEstimate.hours / 24).toFixed(1)}d`}
+                                </span>
+                            )}
                         </span>
                     )}
                 </div>